Sayantari Ghosh, Amit Kumar Pal, Indrani Bose
Diverse complex dynamical systems are known to exhibit abrupt regime shifts at bifurcation points of the saddle-node type. The dynamics of most of these systems, however, have a stochastic component resulting in noise driven regime shifts even if the system is away from the bifurcation points. In this letter, we propose a new quantitative measure, namely, the propensity transition point as an indicator of stochastic regime shifts. The concepts and the methodology are illustrated for the May model, a well-known model in ecology. The general applicability and usefulness of the method for the analysis of regime shifts is further pointed out.
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http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.5385
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